I like SMU here and I'll lean on the experience of their head coach June Jones who has been in this posistion before of being a big dog in a bowl game. Often times he comes up with huge victories. The game against Nevada comes to mind. Fresno State has been a covering machine all year 11-1 ATS and it has to catch up to them at some point and I think this is the perfect time. Tim DeRuyter is a first year coach and it's a little unkown on how he can get his players up for this game. For many of these players this is a vacation and for June Jones and SMU this was a place he called home for years when he was the Hawaii coach so he's going to be better at handling the distractions.

On paper Fresno looks like the sure winner, but a few things to keep in mind in this one. SMU is capable of dominating the time of possession they were ranked 6th in the nation in that category and RB Zach Line is capable of taking this game over against Fresno's most glaring weakness their run defense. After looking at this match up I wouldn't be surprised to see Fresno sell out to stop the run, but for June Jones and his offense to come out passing the ball with Gilbert who has been much better down the stretch as he has not committed an interception over the last 5 games which will be a very important stat in this game. Both teams are among the best in the nation at forcing turnovers and if SMU can somehow win that battle they would have a good chance at winning this game. As far as strength of schedule goes hands down SMU has had the more challenging road to a bowl game facing Baylor, TCU, and Texas A&M in non conference games compared to Fresno who did face Oregon, but Boise State and Tulsa. Tulsa is the common opponent which SMU beat at home and Fresno lost on the road. The difference was turnovers and the running game. SMU ran all over Tulsa for 5.5 ypc while Fresno only averaged 3.6 and was +10 yards in the game despite losing. I think we could see a game that's similar and don't sleep on SMU in the red zone as Fresno's offense down the stretch was only able to convert 42% of their red zone opportunities into TD's. SMU got better down the stretch with 66% conversions.

At the end of the day this is not a huge play for me, but I've seen it a thousand times with a team like Fresno and we have even seen it from Fresno when they dominate in the regular season take 30 days off and they are not the same team. June Jones is a good coach and he even had his team practice for 2+ hours the other day for what he called his longest bowl practice. I think they will be well prepared and play with a chip on their shoulder tonight.

Where to find Freddy?